Scientific advances and innovation

  • To take into account the different sources of error (modeling error, discretization error) in the computation of probability of failure.
  • To develop methods that enable spatial or temporal zooms on critical details for the reliability analysis.
  • To update models from sensor measurements to improve its quality.

Expected technical and economic impact

To develop numerical tools in order to consider coupled phenomena in a stochastic framework on complex structures, such as jacket foundations of wind turbine. To use these tools for reliability analysis and for goal-oriented sensor positioning

Key project milestones

  • February 2018 - The project begins


Parametric studies on 2-dimensional mechanical problems with random elasticity parameters have shown the influence of the mesh size on the estimation of the probability of failure. The discretization error may not be negligible. A bounding of the probability of failure has been obtained and error maps guiding the remeshing process are available.

A numerical strategy was defined to adapt the finite element discretization while computing the probability of failure using meta-models. The simulations close to the conception point are realized with a high level of precision.

Publications and papers published


  • Communication at the Congrès français de mécanique (CFM) in Brest in August, 2019 :  “Prise en compte de l’erreur de discrétisation pour l’estimation de probabilité de défaillance par surface de réponse”  – Ludovic Mell, Valentine Rey, Franck Schoefs