Scientific advances and innovation

  • To take into account the different sources of error (modeling error, discretization error) in the computation of probability of failure.
  • To develop methods that enable spatial or temporal zooms on critical details for the reliability analysis.
  • To update models from sensor measurements to improve its quality.

Expected technical and economic impact

The expected impact of the MUSCAS project is to develop numerical tools in order to consider coupled phenomena in a stochastic framework on complex structures, such as jacket foundations of wind turbine. To use these tools for reliability analysis and for goal-oriented sensor positioning.

Key project milestones

  • February 2018 - The project begins

Results

Within MUSCAS, parametric studies on 2-dimensional mechanical problems with random elasticity parameters have shown the influence of the mesh size on the estimation of the probability of failure. The discretization error may not be negligible. A bounding of the probability of failure has been obtained and error maps guiding the remeshing process are available.

A numerical strategy was defined to adapt the finite element discretization while computing the probability of failure using meta-models. The simulations close to the conception point are realized with a high level of precision.

Publications and papers published